Lollapalooza co-founder Marc Geiger said that live shows will probably return in 2022. He talked on The Bob Lefsetz Podcast about the Covid-19 pandemic and how the music business is being affected.
Marc Geiger said about live shows returning only in 2022:
“My guess is late ’21, more likely ’22… Look, the whole thing is a shit show. Whether it’s testing or it’s the government, it’s too infinite of a well to go down. But in my humble opinion, it’s going to be ’22. It’s going to take that long before what I call the ‘germaphobia economy’ to be slowly killed off and be replaced by what I call the ‘claustrophobia economy,’ which is where everybody wants to go out and go back to dinner and have their life and go to festivals and go to shows.
“And my instinct is that’s just going to take a while because as you can see, these super-spreader events – sports, shows, festivals, anything, the classroom – ain’t going to do too well while the virus is this present. So my instinct is the world has a very long, forced timeout. A lot of people see the positives in it, whether it’s climate, whether it’s pollution, whether it’s traffic, whether it’s nature, whether it’s animals, whether it’s our own beings and taking a pause.
“And I know it’s frustrating, maddening, and economically destructive. But… this is bigger than us, and if you study history things like this have happened in history and been super-disruptive to normal society. So here’s a biggie for our lifetime.”
Talking about insurance, he said:
“There is no insurance against COVID currently offered… and even normal insurance policies are pretty scarce and hard to come by. The insurers are sitting on the sideline because there’s an infinite liability.
“‘Hey I got COVID,’ this and that – how do you prove it, etc.? I think the biggest companies can maybe self-insure, and they can start. Everybody else has to wait ’til the insurance industry feels good. So that’s one of many, many roadblocks in the way of restarting this vibrant economy that got shut down. So there’s probably 20 reasons… Insurance is a biggie. And I don’t know when that comes back, either.”
About drive-in concerts Marc said:
“Do I have to? Why is it a gimmick? Capacity is very small by the time you actually put the cars in. Pricing, with a disconnected experience, is high. The audio I don’t think can be very good yet in the car, but hey…
“These are temporary stopgap solutions. Garth did a very interesting thing basically as a pay-per-view right to other drive-ins. I think there’s a feeling that during what I call the ‘germinology economy’ that almost anything [is appealing] if it’s the first time to get out of the house. So for me, it’s not really a great experience, to be honest. And the economics are broken, so let’s get real. People are doing things to do them, not to make a living, right?”